ICRA: 17GW Ntawm Kev Txhim Kho PV Tshiab Xav Tau Hauv Is Nrias teb Xyoo no

Kev nqis peev thiab kev ntsuam xyuas lub koom haum ICRA tau kwv yees tias lub peev xwm ntawm cov tshuab hluav taws xob photovoltaic (PV) tau teeb tsa hauv Is Nrias teb tuaj yeem ncav cuag 17GW xyoo no thiab 20GW xyoo 2025. kev txhawb nqa txoj cai muaj zog, kev xav tau ceev ceev, thiab kev sib tw tariff yuav tswj qhov kev xav ntawm kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua hauv Is Nrias teb lub zog tauj dua tshiab.

ICRA tau kwv yees tias qhov kev cia siab rau Is Nrias teb lub zog tauj dua tshiab tseem nyob ruaj khov, feem ntau yog vim muaj kev txhawb nqa txoj cai muaj zog, qhov kev xav tau loj hlob sai, thiab kev sib tw tariff. Lub tuam txhab tau hais tias tsis tu ncua kev them nqi ntawm cov nqi los ntawm cov tuam txhab faib khoom tom qab kev qhia txog Late Payment Surcharge (LPS) cov txheej txheem yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam zoo rau kev loj hlob ntawm PV kev lag luam.

ICRA cia siab tias Is Nrias teb yuav ntxiv 18 mus rau 20GW ntawm cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab hauv FY2024 thiab ib puag ncig 25GW hauv FY2025, piv rau 15GW hauv FY2023. feem ntau ntawm lub peev xwm ntxiv yuav los ntawmPV project, nrog Is Nrias teb xav tias yuav ntxiv 17GW thiab 20GW ntawm qhov tshiab nruab PV system peev xwm hauv FY2024 thiab FY2025, feem.

Girishkumar Kadam, Tus Lwm Thawj Coj Tus Thawj Coj thiab Tus Thawj Coj ntawm Pawg Tuam Txhab Kev Ntsuas, ICRA, tau hais tias, "Vim qhov kev poob qis ntawm cov nqi ntawm PV hlwb thiab PV modules, qhov txuas ntxiv ntawm kev txiav txim rau Daim Ntawv Teev Npe ntawm Cov Qauv thiab Module Manufacturers (ALMM) rau lub Peb Hlis. 2024, thiab ncua sij hawm ncua sij hawm rau kev pom zoo PV systems thiab hybrid zog tej yaam num yuav ua rau kom muaj kev nce nyob rau hauv lub peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab tau teeb tsa hauv Is Nrias teb los ntawm 15GW hauv FY2023 txog 18GW txog 20GW hauv FY2023.

Kadam tau sau tseg, txawm li cas los xij, tias cov teeb meem rau kev txhim kho PV systems tseem nyob rau ntawm qhov kev siv, suav nrog kev yuav av thiab kev sib txuas ntawm kab sib txuas qeeb. Qhov no, nws hais tias, tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev teeb tsa PV system muaj peev xwm hauv Is Nrias teb.

Kuv Nws tau hais tias Is Nrias teb lub thermal cog load yam tseem ceeb (PLF) yuav nce ntxiv los ntawm kwv yees li 68% hauv FY2024 mus rau 69% hauv FY2025, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev xav tau ntawm lub zog thiab kev loj hlob tsawg hauv kev tsim muaj peev xwm.

ICRA ntsuas qhov kev cia siab rau Is Nrias teb lub thermal fais fab kev lag luam raws li "ruaj khov" kev loj hlob, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev txhim kho hauv cov khoom thauj khoom (PLF) ntawm thermal fais fab nroj tsuag thiab txo qis hauv lub tuam txhab xa tawm cov khoom lag luam tom qab Lub Yim Hli 2022 kev siv LPS.

Lub tuam txhab cia siab tias Is Nrias teb qhov kev thov loj hlob rau kev tsim hluav taws xob thermal kom qeeb mus rau 5.5%-6.0% hauv FY2025 los ntawm 7.0%-7.5% hauv FY2024.

Kadam tau hais tias, "Tam sim no Is Nrias teb muaj nyob ib puag ncig 30GW ntawm lub peev xwm txhim kho ntawm cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob thermal nyob hauv kev tsim kho, feem ntau hauv lub teb chaws lub xeev cov khoom tsim hluav taws xob, uas xav tias yuav raug xa mus rau ob mus rau plaub xyoos tom ntej. Hauv peb qhov kev xav, muab qhov kev nce ntxiv hauv kev tsim hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab, muaj qhov yuav tsum tau ua kom muaj peev xwm txhim kho cov nroj tsuag cogeneration yog tias Is Nrias teb qhov kev thov hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv nce ntawm ib xyoos ib zaug ntawm ntau dua 6.0% txog 2030. Yog tias qhov kev thov loj hlob ntawm 7.5. % toj ib xyoo los ntawm 2030, lub peev xwm yuav tsum tau rau thermal fais fab nroj tsuag yuav siab li 70GW kom tau raws li qhov xav tau.

Coal tseem yog cov roj tseem ceeb rau kev ua kom tau raws li Is Nrias teb lub hauv paus load fais fab xav tau, thiab xav tias Is Nrias teb nce nws cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv los ntawm 200GW los ntawm FY2024 txog FY2030, feem ntawm cov hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv nws lub zog tag nrho yog kwv yees los ntawm 73% hauv FY2023 txog ntawm 58% thiab 60% hauv FY2030, ICRA tau hais. Txawm li cas los xij, tsab ntawv ceeb toom sau tseg tias cov hluav taws xob hluav taws xob yuav tsum txuas ntxiv mus rau feem ntau ntawm nws cov hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob sib xyaw kom txog thaum 2030.